About 60 percent of the oil and 90 percent of the coal must remain on Earth. A new study appears. A research paper by University College London uses modeling to decipher what must happen for a 50 percent chance of achieving this climate goal, and concludes that a lot of fossil energy reserves must be on Earth. This article looks at most of the implications for the countries, professions, and individuals involved.
According to new research, nearly 60% of available fossil oil and gas methane and 90% of the world's coal reserves should not be used by at least 2050 — and this measure only gives a 50% chance To reduce global warming to 1.5 ° C. These cuts mean that many fossil fuel projects around the world, both planned and existing, must be stopped. In addition, oil and gas production should be reduced by 3% annually by 2050. This means that most regions of the world should reach their maximum production now or in the next decade.Advertising
The article also notes that your productivity changes may be underestimated. Some of these reasons are due to the fact that the model contains passive emission technologies such as carbon capture and storage, although there are doubts about the speed of deployment of these systems. And of course, more carbon must be used to achieve greater chances of limiting global warming at 1.5°C.
The required emissions limit has not yet been achieved. For example, a 2019 United Nations report stated that world governments expect to produce 120% more fossil fuels by 2030. “[The trajectory] of fossil fuels is currently leading us in the wrong direction in the world,” Welsby said. >
This search breaks down the world by region. In these different regions, the reduction required for diffusion and production varies. By 2050, for example, 83% of Canada's current fossil fuel reserves should remain the same, in part due to rising production costs. "In addition, we found that all undeveloped resources in the Arctic must remain on land," Woolsby said. Extract it and sell it, because limiting heating to 1.5°C could involve suspending carbon production and pricing. Steve Bay, associate professor at University College London and co-author of the paper, said at a press conference that producers and investors need to realize that future investments are not aligned with meeting global greenhouse gas emissions targets. However, this research shows that industry actors must be supported during the transition. This article argues that developed countries should help developing countries support the transition to green industries. "This should be seen as a fair transition that helps dependents and disabled people escape," Bey said.
Renewable energy prices are dropping - especially wind and solar energy - and electric cars are becoming more affordable. James Price, a UCL research fellow and author of the article, said the goal of limiting heating to 1.5°C was technically feasible. "This is really a state of having the political will to resist the temptation to extract the last particles of fossil fuels," he told a news conference.
Nature, 2021. 03821-8 (About DOIs)
To limit heating to 1.5°C, large amounts of fossil fuels must be left unused.
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