https://safirsoft.com Renewable growth rates are not high enough to meet climate targets

A look at 60 countries shows that renewable growth rarely reaches the rate we need. At this point, researchers and policy analysts review and re-examine future climate scenarios. We know how much carbon dioxide we can release and not warm the world by more than 2°C, and we can use that to figure out how quickly we need to move away from fossil fuels. And we can discover different ways to get there, most of which involve replacing fossil fuels with the cheapest renewables: wind and solar. From here, things get more complicated, and this is where the true power of the Sun lies.

Wind and solar energy have become the cheapest new source of electricity in most countries, and we now have a large economic scope for their production and installation. We also have decades of experience managing it effectively. There is no good reason to believe that these renewable energies should not be ready for exponential growth. However, a new study on the history of renewables shows that only a few countries have experienced this kind of growth. And even when those countries achieved this growth, it was only for a short time.

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The new business idea curve is that most technologies are experiencing a predictable acceptance pattern. . It starts with a low growth period, while this technology is too expensive, misunderstood, or cannot be mass-produced. Upon reaching a critical point, adoption reaches a period of rapid acceleration and is experiencing higher growth each year. However, over time, this growth slows down and the curve flattens over a long period of continuous growth.

The S-curves show the period during which growth accelerates before decreasing and stabilizing. Zoom / S indicates the period during which growth accelerates before reversing and stabilizing. John Timmer

It's usually called an S curve, because if the design grows over time, you get what looks like a flat surface. There is a curve up to the period of fastest growth, after which a curve towards continuous growth is observed, which is seen in mature technology.

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What does this have to do with climate goals? To achieve it, countries must maximize renewable energy sources as quickly as possible during the growth period. But maximizing growth alone is not enough - countries must remain at maximum growth rates for as long as possible to reach a higher plateau with the onset of sustainable growth. If we cannot manage it, we must look for other ways to achieve our publishing goals.

So far, a large number of countries have experienced growth and stability, and the researchers felt they could determine if there was sufficient growth and, if so, under what conditions. To do this, they looked at data from 60 countries, which together account for more than 95% of the world's electricity generation.

Throttle

Initially, they determined when countries were entering the wind or solar growth phase, and found that reaching a 1% growth rate was a good indicator. he is. Many of these countries can be traced back to a period of maximum growth and then a number of them experienced regrowth and produced a complete S curve.

As expected, exact results varied by country and technology. Wind initially lowered its price, so most countries saw the technology begin about a decade earlier than solar. But solar power is getting cheaper, easier to build on a large scale, and it requires less infrastructure to install. Therefore, its growth increases more rapidly. Local conditions were also important. A number of countries, mostly in Northern Europe, have seen winds but they have not similarly grown in the sun. Others have seen that the sun is only going through a period of rapid growth.

According to the latest data (2018), there were 11 countries where growth accelerated and another 21 countries experienced slow growth for three consecutive years, indicating that they completed the S curve. Decisively, the countries that started in the Accelerations later have faster growth rates. This shows that the technology maturity and experience gained by early users does not make it easy for countries to adopt wind and solar energy later on. The researchers' analysis estimates that the average growth rate after the acceleration period was about 0.8% of the nations' electricity supply for wind and 0.6% for solar. The highest growth rate was 1.8% of electricity supply annually, and the major countries rarely exceeded 1%.

In a few cases, Rushd hit the hill and started working again. But there were only three, so that doesn't seem to be a major factor in growth.

Is the speed sufficient?

The answer is quite straightforward. If we lag behind the stabilization scenarios, we need winds that will roughly double their current speed from 0.6 percent to 1.2 percent. Based on the experience of a number of large countries, this would be maximizing the speed of growth and then staying there. Solar energy needs to see at its current global rate a threefold increase in capacity equal to 1% of the electricity supplier each year. Both of these numbers are for reducing climate change to 2°C, when countries agreed that 1.5°C was the preferred target.

As the authors of the article pointed out, the current situation is in line with our climate, we are aiming for decades of growth in renewable energy at rates higher than those seen during peak periods in most countries. Many countries have not seen the growth of renewable energy despite haphazard or ineffective policies. But if countries do not improve their policy setting, they will either have to search for other options (such as efficiency and carbon sequestration) or admit that they do not actually intend to meet their obligations. Natural Energy, 2021. DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00863-0 (about DOIs).

Renewable growth rates are not high enough to meet climate targets
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