Heat wave in the Pacific Northwest is 'nearly impossible' without climate change
People in this area are unaccustomed to such extreme heat, nearly half of homes have air conditioners. The number of heat-related deaths remains unclear.Zoom/Maximum annual temperature recorded at Portland International Airport. Philip et al. /WWA
As with other extreme weather events, the team developed a rapid analysis of this heat wave in the context of climate change. The analysis was released on Wednesday. The team coordinates scientists to perform a standard set of analyzes - this method has been reviewed by a colleague, but this new paper is not yet clear.Read more climate change or "weather only?" Here's how to respond to
This method involves a shotgun approach that begins with historical weather data. Focusing on a box located between 45°N and 52°N and 119°W and 123°W that covers Portland, Seattle and Vancouver and east to the three cities of Washington, they examined annual temperature maximums over time. The goal is to have a well-proportioned mathematical relationship that tells you how strange an event is - for example, it can generate data like 1 in 10 probabilities or 1 in 50 every year. But with very extreme events, the stats are often tricky, because this heat wave was beyond anything in the device's log. As far as can be guessed, the team put this heat wave at a probability of 1 in 1,000 - something that should happen every thousand years.Advertising
Compare this to the world before man-made climate change, simulations should be added. As usual, the team compares and contrasts the area's historical temperature to a large database of models. In line with the weak historical trend. climate simulation statistics from the late 19th century can then be combined with historical data to see how rare this was in the past.
The probability of this heat wave occurring in cooler climates in the late 19th century would be at least 1 in 150,000 if not rare. It's a dangerous event with climate change, but one almost unimaginable without climate change — "almost impossible," according to the team. Another way to think about it is that the isothermal heat wave in the late 19th century was 2°C/3.6°F lower than the recent record.
The team also introduced the idea to the 1940s, when global warming exceeded 2 degrees Celsius. The tipping point of this world, a 1 in 1,000 heat wave may be hotter. What just happened can have a probability of 1 in 10 - which means we'll see it again very soon.
The analysis includes a straightforward and unusual description of what this means for the region:
“Our results are a stark warning: Our rapidly warming climate is entering and creating an unfamiliar region with devastating consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. There is a need to immediate adaptation and modification to prepare societies for a very different future.All over the world, including surprises such as this unexpected.
Severe heat death can be greatly reduced with adequate preparedness, heat work programs that include Rapid warning systems They are heat waves, and they can enhance the resilience of cities and people. Plus, to improve our built environments, long-term plans are needed compared to the warmer climates we are seeing today and the additional warming we will see in the future. Plus, if the temperature continues to rise , greenhouse gas reduction targets must meet the increased risks associated with unprecedented weather conditions. Advise.”
The climate pattern that caused this is twofold. The jet stream is organized by a solid 'omega block' pattern and moves north to bring pressure and air from the south. The strength of this high pressure reached a record for this region, although it wasn't really rare from a global point of view (High pressure means air comes down to the surface, then warms up when compressed, maintaining a clear sky.)< p> Wind patterns exacerbate this problem, as warmer air is carried inland rather than milder, from the Pacific Ocean, and winds passing through the Waterfall Mountains descend. It is compressed and warmed to lower elevations on the coast, and because the area falls into a drought, there is little soil moisture to evaporate and cool the ground, as it cools your skin like sweat. That the temperature is higher than it would be otherwise. p> Magnification/Precipitation via satellite compared to average for March and June. Nothing helped, Philip et al. /WWA
All accounts in this analysis assume an explanation for "bad luck plus climate change," where an unlikely combination of weather events is blamed for climate change and weather getting worse as the Earth warms, but researchers say there is Another possibility - that climate change is also affecting climate patterns and affecting each other in many ways. Is more than one in 1,000.Read more: Do you blame the sharp influx on climate change? No, it's also not fast
there's no clear evidence for this, and the team is taking notes that the models didn't predict. But the degree to which this record-breaking heat wave seems to make some researchers wonder if they are missing something. "You won't set a record of four or five degrees Celsius (seven to nine degrees Fahrenheit). It's an extraordinary event so we can't have that possibility," Friedrich Otto of Oxford University said in a press release with the analysis. "Today we are in extreme heat conditions where we can only expect higher levels of global warming."
“This raises serious questions about whether we really understand how water changes. And air makes heat waves warmer. And more deadly.” Geert Jan van Oldenburg of the Royal Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands added.
The fundamental link between global warming and extremely hot weather is clear, and it is well established that heat waves get worse. However, heat waves like these can surprise us with their intensity, and serve as a flashing red reminder of the consequences of climate change.
Photo courtesy of NASA EO