Coastal flooding in the US is likely to suddenly worsen

Over the decades, many parts of the United States may experience a rapid change in frequency. In some parts of the United States, this causes disturbing flooding, with tides causing flooding on the coast, even when there are no storms. Discover which areas are most likely to be affected by coastal flooding and when this is necessary to continue work to increase coastal management as the oceans continue to rise.

Finding this out is complicated. The rate of sea level rise can vary from year to year, the local ocean level can vary with subsidence or rise, and sea level is rising. And now, a team of researchers has played down one additional factor: regular changes in the moon's orbit, which affect tidal levels. They go on to show that these changes can limit the effects of rising seas for a while, but then help increase flooding rapidly.

Cycling on the Moon

The lunar plane is not exactly at the equator. Instead, it is a little crooked. This means that for one part of its orbit the moon is in orbit over the northern hemisphere and for the other part it is over the south. The places in its orbit where the Moon passes through both hemispheres are called nodes, and they move over time. A knot takes just over 18 years to complete its orbit around the Earth.

This cycle has tidal consequences, although its effects vary over time and geography. But, in general, the sign of high tide at one point in an 18-year cycle can differ in altitude from the sign of high tide at one point. Specifically, in Saint Petersburg, Florida, the height of the tide at one point of the lunar cycle is 4.7 cm above the minimum.


This complexity is located at the top of the layer, and all the additional factors that change sea level rise. The researchers turned to NOAA data and models to find out what this means for flooding. NOAA has determined the tidal level that caused flooding in various parts of the United States, including small and medium flood levels. It also maintains different predictions of sea level rise by the end of the century, depending on whether we expect the overall increase to be below, mid or above range by the end of the century.

All this was accompanied by the influence of the moon to create a set of models that predict flood risks over the next few decades. The team estimates that there are 89 different locations across the United States, including some areas of the islands.

Moon and Other Conditions

As sea levels have risen to the rest of the region over the course of the century, it is not surprising that these projections show an increased rate of flooding. But the influence of the moon often had a surprising effect on its size. In many places, to prevent flooding, try to prevent the gradual increase for a while. When the circuit changes, it then speeds up the flood rate.

This creates a so-called elasticity point, where the behavior of the system changes relatively abruptly. Certain places increase from a very gradual increase in flood days to a faster increase. In most parts of the United States, this tipping point occurs in the period from 2030 to 2040 - not far from the present. For example, Boston is expected to flood an additional six days each year by the end of 2031 to 2041, but by the end of the next decade, we will see another 46 days of moderate flooding in the city. Similar trends have been observed in many other cities.

Although this has a significant impact, it is not the only one. There is a non-linear relationship between sea level rise and flood days, because the distance between the floods is less and the high tides do not cause the floods. One of the factors behind the combination could not be the fact that sea level rise tends to change over time, in part due to short-term effects such as El Ni -o. For example, if you look at sea level data, you will see that there are many short-term dips at sea level (such as around 2010), often associated with periods when the ocean is erupting faster than its average velocity (look at 2015- 2017). These fluctuations cannot be predicted, but the rate of flooding can easily be reduced or increased.

Finally, many parts of the United States are gradually retreating due to pressure deposits. Other areas buried in ice during the last glacial period are still being destroyed, and the added mass is lost. They also create differences between locations that affect the degree of flooding. Flood clusters Another thing that is clear in the data is that water level rise is not evenly distributed throughout the year. By 2050, for example, Honolulu is expected to experience about 63 days of flooding annually. But about half of them are likely to happen within a three-month period. This is because the factors that tend to cause flooding do not necessarily disappear the next day, and only partly because the average rate of flooding over a year is very high.

In general, there are a number of conclusions that can be drawn from this. For now, you can ignore flooding from sea level unless you live in a few places. But the authors estimate that in just over a decade, this will stop being a regional problem and become a widespread national problem. Over the course of a decade, many places have crossed resilience and are on their way to a rapid increase in flooding.

Finally, it all depends on low to medium sea level scenarios. If things happen faster than that, the amount of time we have before we need to deal with these issues will be significantly narrower.

All this is necessary to immediately take care of these floods. The infrastructure we are currently building is expected to reach the end of its life before the floods become larger. The housing, roads and other facilities we currently use may need to be protected or abandoned. Coastal countries may wish to allocate a budget to deal with the unforeseen surprises that continually occur.

Climate change in nature 2021.

Coastal flooding in the US is likely to suddenly worsen
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